Leaders often act without a thorough understanding of the problem to be solved, leading them to solve the wrong problem
Leaders often act without a thorough understanding of the problem to be solved, leading them to solve the wrong problem
Leaders often act without a thorough understanding of the problem to be solved, leading them to solve the wrong problem. Accurate judgment is required to identify and define the problem. Leaders often err by (a) defining the problem in terms of a proposed solution, (b) missing a bigger problem, or (c) diagnosing the problem in terms of its symptoms. Your goal should be to solve the problem, not just eliminate its temporary symptoms.
Define a problem you need to solve being careful to not make any of the errors described above. Remember all steps in the rational decision-making process will be completed through the remainder of the course as they related to the problem you define.
It is important to choose a clearly defined problem (think simple and straightforward) for this exercise (new car, new job, a new place to live, new house, degree program, etc.) to better understand and learn the process so that the rational decision-making model can later be applied to more complex problems. If your problem involves other people or elements beyond your control, it may be too complex for this exercise. Be sure to reach out to your instructor with questions.
Each step of the rational decision-making process can and should be connected to the research. Examples include, but are not limited to System 1 and System 2 thinking, overconfidence, common biases, bounded awareness, framing, self-serving reasoning, perceptions of fairness, etc. The connection you make should always be related to the current step in the rational decision-making process but may not align with the reading for the week.
Books for this course:
Bazerman, M., & Moore, D. (2012). Judgement in managerial decision making. John Wiley & Sons.
ISBN: 978-1-118-06570-9
Stefanovich, A. (2011). Look at more: A proven approach to innovation, growth, and change. Jossey-Bass.
ISBN: 978-0-470-94977-1
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
ISBN: 978-0-374-27563-1
Duarte, N. (2019). Data story: Explain data and inspire action through story. IdeaPress.
ISBN: 978-1-940858982
Requirements: 2-3
Subject: Management
So….whatever problem used, will be the same problem we use for the next 2 assignments. What problem were you thinking of using?
I was thinking about using this as a problem: why are undergraduate students constantly changing their majors? a solution would be how to better prepare high school students for college so they know their direction.
Lets use this:
so the problem is the changing of majors and then the reasons why they change their majors will be the variants. and then some solutions would be blah blah blah…
Here is some additional information.
Discussion Forum – Define the Problem EXAMPLE
(While this subject material may be different from your particular course, it should serve as an example of the expectation to provide research support for your assertions. To better illustrate sectional components I have used a block paragraph style.)
Directions for this Example
Leaders often action without a thorough understanding of the problem to be solved, leading them to solve the wrong problem. Accurate judgment is required to identify and define the problem. Leaders often err by (a) defining the problem in terms of a proposed solution, (b) missing a bigger problem, or (c) diagnosing the problem in terms of its symptoms. Your goal should be to solve the problem, not just eliminate its temporary symptoms.
Define a problem you need to solve being careful to not make any of the errors described above. Remember all steps in the rational decision-making process will be completed through the remainder of the course as they related to the problem you define.
It is important to choose a clearly defined problem (think simple and straightforward) for this exercise (new car, new job, new place to live, new house, degree program, etc.) to better understand and learn the process so that the rational decision-making model can later be applied to more complex problems. If your problem involves other people or elements beyond your control, it may be too complex for this exercise. Be sure to reach out to your instructor with questions.
Each step of the rational decision-making process can and should be connected to research. Examples include, but are not limited to System 1 and System 2 thinking, overconfidence, common biases, bounded awareness, framing, self-serving reasoning, perceptions of fairness, etc. The connection you make should always be related to the current step in the rational decision-making process but may not align with the reading for the week
Initial Response
To better understand the context of the problem, it may be necessary to explain the organization involved with, and the context surrounding, the problem. The organization in this instance is a middle-aged couple that lead a very active lifestyle. As they progress from middle aged to retirement age, the couple has have had to curtail some of their outdoor activities (snowboarding, rock climbing, backpacking (multiple day trips), motorcycle riding, etc.) and seek different ways to be outdoors and participate in their active exploration of nature. The bucket list of the wife contains visiting and exploring every national park in the contiguous United States. As they have done more and more car-camping, the couple discovered they enjoyed “dispersed camping” which instead of camping at a designated campground with electricity, showers, etc., is more “off the grid” in Forest Service areas or Bureau of Land Management areas away from crowds of people. As the couple brainstormed the most efficient way explore such a vast expanse, they considered motorhomes, travel trailers, and campervans. As they considered the possible avenues to explore, three significant factors emerged such as initial cost, cost of ownership, and storage limitations. The couple live in a condo that has a Homeowners Association (HOA) agreement that does not allow for storage of recreational vehicles on the property. Additionally, and as semi-retirement looms closer, the couple will soon have to live on a fixed income, so initial cost was also a primary driver. The motorhome idea was quickly considered and forgotten, due to several reasons: 1) the initial cost, 2) high cost of ownership, 3) it is limiting in terms of being able to access certain locations, 4) and storage options/cost. Similarly, the travel trailer was considered and dismissed, due to the following reasons: 1) storage options/cost, 2) limiting in terms of being able to access certain locations, 3) high cost of ownership (necessity of buying a truck to tow the trailer). In their first round of decision making related to what type of recreational vehicle would work best for their needs, the couple did not seem to make the any of the usual errors of defining the problem in terms of a particular solution, missing the larger problem, or diagnosing the problem by its symptoms (Bazerman & Moore, 2013). Seemingly, the couple also used a System 2 reasoning approach which “refers to reasoning that is slower, conscious, effortful, explicit, and logical” (Kahneman, 2003, as cited in Bazerman & Moore, 2013, p. 3). Noticeable in the couples’ approach are several steps of the Bazerman and Moore rational decision-making process, most notably identifying the criteria and rating each alternative on each criterion (2013).
Before defining the couple’s latest problem, it is important to discuss additional contextual items. The couple has already previewed and test-driven campervans by most of the larger manufacturers. Unfortunately for them, their optimal prebuilt campervan was the Airstream Interstate which costs approximately $200,000. So, the couple has decided the most cost-effective direction for them is to buy an empty van and to build it out themselves. So, the problem before them is, what is the optimal van to buy and build that will meet all their camping/traveling needs? While they don’t yet have a fixed price for how much they will spend on the initial purchase of a van, the couple has decided that the budget for their build will be $30,000 and believe that it should take less than one year to build. The couple has determined the prior figures based upon countless hours of internet research on the topic. Immediately what comes to mind is what Bazerman and Moore (2013) call the mother of all biases, overconfidence, which may also be considered a hidden trap (Hammond et al., 2013). At least two of the ways overconfidence is usually considered may be applicable in this case; overprecision and overestimation. Overprecision is “the tendency to be too sure our judgements and decisions are accurate…” (Bazerman & Moore, 2013, p. 15). This may be particularly relevant considering both members of this couple are professional educators, which means they do not possess vast amounts of free time to do the work, or any experience related to this type of project. Overestimation, which includes the common tendency to think we’re more capable that we actually are (Bazerman & Moore, 2013), may also be a factor related to both the amount spent on the project, and its time to completion, again due to the couple’s lack of experience. The next step in the process will be to identify the criteria important to the couple regardless of which van is finally chosen.
Reference
Bazerman, M., & Moore, D. (2013). Judgement in managerial decision making. Wiley.
Hammond, J., Keeney, R., & Raiffa, H. (2013). The hidden traps in decision making. In HBR (Ed.), HBR’s 10 must reads on making smart decisions (pp. 1-20). Harvard Business Review.
Peer Response (While this example contains a single peer response, most discussion forum assignment calls for two peer responses.)
This is a simple, yet interesting problem and I appreciated all the context you provided. I would agree that the couple are using System 2 thinking, evident by the rational decision makes steps you outlined above. Bazerman and Moore (2013) would seem to agree based upon, “The logical steps…provide a prototype of System 2 thinking” (p. 3). While you did not list it, step two in the process, identifying the criteria, seems to be evident in your context above. The couple has identified initial cost, cost of ownership, access to locations, and storage options/cost minimally as the criteria to narrow their search down to the optimal vehicle type. Bazerman and Moore (2013) state, “The rational decision maker will identify all relevant criteria in the decision-making process” (p. 2), which certainly seems to have happened above. You mentioned overprecision above, and I would agree! More specifically, self-enhancement, the illusion of control, and the planning fallacy may be factors in play here (Bazerman & Moore, 2013). Self-enhancement is where people may be motivated to view themselves more positively and may be a factor in their determination of the length of the build process for their van. The illusion of control may be a factor in both the budget and length of the project. The couple cannot control supply and demand in a post-COVID world which will affect price, availability, and ultimately the length of the project. The planning fallacy refers to the human tendency to overestimate the time to project completion, and at least in this instance may be correlated with the illusion of control. All in all, an interesting problem that should lend itself well to the rational decision-making process.
Reference
Bazerman, M., & Moore, D. (2013). Judgement in managerial decision making. Wiley.
That was an example of a response given by the professor.
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